A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
